Youmight have heardthat Katla , an Icelandic volcano , is about to erupt and shut down European airspace in a means that would make the Eyjafjallajökull event in 2010 seem like nothing more than a bonfire . The funny thing is that none of this is reliable .
These claims are based on a fascinating newstudythat expressly does not make any predictive claims about the volcano . The newspaper publisher ’s lead author , Dr Evgenia Ilyinskaya of the University of Leeds , take to Twitterto elegy how the research has been depict by the wardrobe as something it ’s not .
Katla is sure as shooting something volcanologists are keeping their eyes on . Comprised of a organisation of fissures not unlike those seen onKilauearecently , it features a central volcano . A large chalk cap , Mýrdalsjökull , fill the crater .
In the last 1,100 twelvemonth , Katla has erupted20 time , often accompanied by wink floods as the ice cap apace melts . These outcome , calledjökulhlaups , are cause for care because they can happen very quickly and wash into valley that may be full of people .
Jökulhlaups , which are n’t unique to Katla , occurfrom time to metre . A major eruption at Katla in themid-18thcentury , however , endure out : it led to a jökulhlaup with a flow that , perWired , outstrip that of the Nile , Mississippi , Amazon , and Yangtze combine .
Katla ’s eruptions can also generate towering ash tree columns , which can affect breeze travel . The last sentence this happened was in 1918 , when an eruption was powerful enough to break through Mýrdalsjökull and create an ash newspaper column 14 klick ( 8.7 knot ) high .
Unsurprisingly , it ’s a to a great extent monitored volcano . Predicting when it might erupt is n’t yet potential , and any claims otherwise are put on .
Katla ’s eruptions do n’t follow any clear design , and like all volcanoes , it ’s geologically unique , so generalizations ca n’t be made . All anyone can do is discuss the hazards , and look out forsignsof magma stand up to the control surface .
The fresh newspaper , write inGeophysical Research Letters , does n’t talk about prognostication . The medium often wants to turn major volcano discoveries into stories of impendent eruption , butusually , that ’s not the case .
This field – which even has a homely language summary to ensure people do n’t get the wrong idea – found that Katla emit plenty more CO2into the ambience than antecedently thought . In fact , the squad plant that Katla alone is responsible for 5 percent of the populace ’s volcanic CO2emissions .
That ’s incredible in itself , and suggests there are process going on beneath the surface that we ’ve yet to fully grok . Which magmatic source , precisely , is releasing this gas ?
This work also play up that instinctive sources of CO2 , particularly subglacial volcanoes , need more precise mensuration to ameliorate the accuracy of climate models . Is Katla an exclusion to the principle of subglacial volcano , or do they all pump out way more CO2than expected ?
In case you were enquire : no , this does n’t mean climate role model are untimely , andyes , volcanic CO2emissions still wan into insignificance compare to the amount and rate of CO2humanity is producing .
This is a howling paper , but one that has been misrepresented in the press . Along with Ilyinskaya , the Icelandic Institute of Earth Sciences – not involved with the study – emphasizesthat the newspaper publisher ’s measurements “ do not predict the size of it and magnitude of the next eruption , ” nor when it ’ll occur . They may help improve eruption forecast , but predictions are not made .
There are no sign that Katla is about to conflagrate . call back thegolden rule : if it ’s being report that an volcanic eruption is imminent , or a majorquakeis about to fall out , it almost certainlyisn’t true . Trust in scientists , not sensationalism .
